China’s low pipeline gas price cuts into LNG demand

Independent buyers and state-owned majors in China are out of the spot LNG market for September and October, as they are adequately supplied by domestic pipeline gas and term volumes.

The lower-priced pipeline gas have deterred any buying interest in spot LNG imports for the time being, several Chinese independent buyers said, although one buyer showed interest in a October cargo at or below $7.50/MMBtu.

Depending on the regions the buyers are based in, the domestic city-gate gas price for industrial users is currently at yuan (CNY) 3.22-4.85/cubic metre (cbm) in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, ICIS China data showed. However, the economics for pipeline gas versus LNG are not

that simple.

Some buyers load LNG onto trucks to distribute it to their customers and that falls outside the regulated pricing scheme. Other mechanisms, such as direct contracts between an LNG buyer and their industrial end-users, could be at play as well.

“It makes more sense for us to use the cheaper pipeline gas. Plus, it is in oversupply, which means its price will likely fall further to encourage more usage,” a private gas distributor said.

Spot LNG offers for September and October deliveries to China were quoted in the low $8.00s/MMBtu in early August, but buyers said tighter margins have made any deal unlikely.

“Right now, any price above mid-$7.00s/MMBtu will eat into our profits. We would rather wait [for LNG prices to fall] and use alternative fuels,” the first gas distributor said.

“Temperatures are also too mild to push any demand. A few companies might say they are in talks with suppliers, but chances of them concluding a spot deal are slim,” a second independent gas distributor said.

An ideal price for these buyers would be below $7.00/MMBtu, the second gas distributor said, but adding that China’s current weak downstream demand makes it unlikely for any new buyers to emerge over the shoulder months. The bottom line is, importing LNG is not a necessity for

these buyers.

Sellers, however, are not budging from their pricing expectations, as there is demand elsewhere globally.

“Our offers to China are still above $8.00/MMBtu, because we have limited cargoes available for the two front months,” a seller in the Pacific basin said.

Furthermore, LNG sellers to China said a key reason for the subdued activity is that many interested buyers are still unable to obtain permission to accept a delivery at the terminals operated by state-owned majors.

“A few downstream distributors have approached us, saying they have spot LNG demand for October, but the progress of concluding a deal is slow because they have to apply for a delivery slot,” the same

seller said.

According to market participants familiar with the process, buyers have to apply for terminal access at least one month in advance as there are limited delivery dates available.

The PetroChina-owned Caofeidian, Rudong and Dalian LNG terminals typically have only one delivery window for third parties every month, because priority is given to the major’s existing schedules.

The steep competition among buyers for any available slots and a slow approval process make it challenging for anyone trying to import an LNG cargo, the sources said.

However, all three terminals have not seen heavy traffic or inflow of cargoes, which prompted some independent buyers to question the current methods used for granting third-party access.

Terminals owned by CNOOC and Sinopec are currently unavailable for third-party access, sources close to the two majors said.